More than half of the surveyed companies, namely 58%, predict positive dynamics of their business development in 2024. These are the findings of the EBA Business Forecasts for 2024survey. Last year, the number was 47%. This year’s results demonstrate a positive trend of cautious improvement in the mood and forecasts of CEOs managers of EBA member companies.

View the presentation

At the same time, 29% of directors expect to keep business indicators at the level of the previous year in 2024, and 13% predict negative dynamics (last year the number was 25%).

Companies are improving their financial indicators forecasts. Most managers expect revenue growth in 2024: 72% expect an increase in hryvnia, and 55% – in physical terms. Last year, the figures were 58% and 43%, respectively. In particular, 35% of the surveyed entrepreneurs expect an increase in revenues in hryvnia of up to 10%, and 25% – by 11-20%. A drop in revenues in hryvnia is predicted by 16%, and 17% in real terms.

In their budgets for 2024, company executives set the value of the currency at an average of 41 UAH/$. For comparison, in 2023, businesses budgeted 43 UAH/$, and in 2021-22 – 29 UAH/$.

Next year, 2 out of 5 CEOs plan to hire new people. Last year, this figure was half as much. At the same time, about half of the companies, namely 48%, will leave the team unchanged, and 12% plan to reduce staff.

The overwhelming majority of surveyed companies, namely 87%, will increase the salaries of their employees. Of these, 46% plan to increase salaries by up to 10%, and 41% plan to increase salaries by 10% to 20%. Only 1% of companies will reduce salaries, and 12% plan to leave them unchanged. Last year, 73% of company executives resorted to raising salaries.

Compared to last year, the number of companies planning to implement new investment projects has increased from 19% to 26%. The average cost of planned projects has also increased and amounts to about $8 million (an average of $3 million in 2023).

The number of companies planning to invest in social initiatives has also slightly increased – from 60% to 65%. On average, businesses are ready to allocate about 6% of their revenues to social projects. In 2023 and 2022, these figures were 8% and 3%, respectively.)

The business traditionally lists the fight against corruption, the need for judicial reform, the establishment of the rule of law, and ensuring macroeconomic stability as the top three priorities for the Government.

For reference:

91 CEOs of member companies of the European Business Association participated in the study “Business Forecast 2024”. The survey was conducted from August 26 to September 4, 2023. The Business Forecasts survey has been conducted by the EBA for 8 years in a row.

Nearly half of the member companies of the European Business Association are positive about their business development in 2023. These are the conclusions of the study "Business Forecast 2023" which was conducted by the EBA and Raiffeisen Bank with analytical support from Gradus Research. This year’s results demonstrate an expected deterioration in the sentiments and forecasts of top managers. For comparison, last year 83% of CEOs made positive forecasts.

View the presentation

28% of directors expect to maintain business indicators at the current level in 2023, and 25% expect a deterioration in the state of business (last year there were only 2%).

Most companies expect a positive financial result next year. Thus, 58% of respondents expect income growth in hryvnia, and 43% – in real terms. At the same time, 31% expect an increase in hryvnia income up to 10%. Also, 31% of directors predict a fall in hryvnia revenues and 36% – in real terms.

When planning budgets for 2023, company managers set the value of the currency at an average of UAH 43/$. We will remind you that for the past two years, forecasts for the hryvnia exchange rate remained constant at the level of UAH 29/$.

Only 1 in 5 CEOs plans to hire new employees next year.  The majority, namely 53%, say they will keep the team unchanged, and the other 28% will resort to downsizing. At the same time, last year more than half of the companies planned to hire more staff.

Only 1% of companies plan to cut wages in 2023, another 26% will keep them at the current level. At the same time, 73% planned to raise wages for employees, of which 40% will raise wages at the level of 10% to 20%. For comparison, all respondents of last year’s survey planned to increase the salaries of their employees.

Compared to last year, the number of CEOs planning to implement new investment projects decreased by a third – only 19% of companies reported this. The average cost of the planned projects is about 3 million dollars. On the other hand, the number of companies planning to invest in social initiatives has increased, so these are 60% currently. On average, businesses are ready to allocate about 8% of their income to social projects. That is significantly more than the previous figure of up to 3% of the company’s income.

The CEOs also identified the TOP-3 tasks for the next year to be considered by the Government. The first two tasks have remained unchanged for several years in a row. The first is the need to carry out judicial reform and establish the rule of law, the second place is the fight against corruption.  Macroeconomic stability is named by the business leaders as the third priority for the next year as it is security is the basis of the future recovery and reconstruction of Ukraine.

Partners

For reference:

104 CEOs of member companies of the European Business Association participated in the study “Business Forecast 2023”. They had to answer 10 questions of the survey during August-September 2022. The Business Forecast study has been conducted by the Association for the 7th year in a row. The study partner in 2022 is Raiffeisen Bank, the analytical partner is Gradus Research.

The results of the Business Forecast 2022, conducted by the European Business Association together with Nestlé Ukraine, show a steady increase in optimistic sentiments and forecasts of the top managers. For comparison, last year just 60% of the respondents predicted positive business results.

View the results

In 2022, the vast majority, namely 83% of the respondents, forecast growth of their business, 15% of the directors assume it will be possible to sustain their business performance at the level of 2021, and only 2% expect some deterioration in their business situation (14% last year).

The companies have significantly improved the financial forecasts for next year. Most entrepreneurs, namely 67%, forecast income growth by 10-20% – in hryvnia. This figure returned to the level of 2020 after a significant decline in the past. Thus, 36% of directors expect revenue growth of up to 10% in volume terms, and almost half (49%) expect a 10-20% growth.

The dollar exchange rate for next year is forecasted to be the same as last year. When planning budgets for 2022, company executives consider the currency rate at an average of 29 UAH/$.

All respondents to this year’s survey note their plans to increase the salaries of their employees in 2022. Most managers, namely 55%, plan to increase salaries by 5-10%. Other 30% will increase salaries by 10-20%. It should be mentioned that last year 15% of the companies were not able to increase staff salaries.

The companies are enthusiastic about the plans to create new jobs. Thus, last year 60% of companies did not plan any changes in their staff, while this year their number is only 36%. The majority, namely 58% of the top managers, plan to expand their staff. And only 6% of the companies will be forced to reduce staff.

One-third of the entrepreneurs, namely 32%, plan to implement new investment projects next year with a budget from 20 thousand to 400 million US dollars. Moreover, we are pleased to note that almost half of the respondents (49%) plan to invest in social initiatives aimed at supporting Ukrainian society next year. In some cases, the amount of investment will reach 3% of the company’s income.

The CEOs also identified the TOP-3 tasks from business to the government for next year. It’s been the second year in a row that the first need mentioned is the need for judicial reform and the rule of law, the second is the fight against corruption, and the third is the need to ensure political stability and effective management in the country. Also, this year, the directors highlighted the importance of further reforming the tax and customs sectors.

For reference:

Altogether, 95 CEOs of the EBA member companies took part in the “Business forecast 2022” study. The survey consisted of 10 questions and was conducted in September 2021. The Business Forecast has been conducted by the Association for the 6th year in a row. This year, the study was held with Nestlé Ukraine – our research partner.

Just 60% of CEOs expect positive growth dynamics for their business in 2021 according to the results of the survey “Business Forecasts 2021” conducted annually by the European Business Association among the CEOs of EBA member companies and were presented on the meeting Global Outlook: Future Driven. It is worth noting that 77% of CEOs expected their business to grow according to the previous wave of the survey for 2020.

View the press release

Meanwhile, 26% of CEOs expect to maintain business performance at the level of 2020, and another 14% say that their business situation will deteriorate. In addition, only a third of entrepreneurs, namely 31% plan to implement large-scale investment projects next year. business development

About a third of entrepreneurs expect an increase in income up to 10% in UAH due to business development projects. Whereas last year the majority (62%) forecast growth at 10-20%. When planning budgets for 2021, company executives set the value of the currency at an average of 29 UAH / $.

At the same time, more than half of the CEOs, namely 54%, plan to increase the salaries of employees by 5-10%. Another 21% will increase wages up to 5%, and 9% – up to 10-20%. Only 15% of companies will not increase staff salaries and no company plans to reduce it.

At the same time, most companies will rely on a restrained HR policy next year. Thus, a 60% plan to keep the company’s staff unchanged. Only 28% of companies plan to expand their staff (last year there were 46%). 12% of businesses will have to resort to staff reductions.

Besides, company executives have identified the top 3 tasks from business to government for next year. They have remained unchanged for a long time, but this year the directors put the need for judicial reform and the rule of law in the first place, the combat against corruption in the second place, and then political stability and effective governance in the country.

For the reference:

Altogether, 121 CEOs of the EBA member companies took part in the “Business forecasts 2021” study. The survey consisted of 10 questions and was conducted in September 2020. The Business Forecasts survey has been conducted by the Association for the 5th year in a row.

The EBA survey shows that 77% of member companies’ CEOs expect business development during the next year. More than half of businessmen (62%) expect 10 to 20% revenue growth, in UAH terms. Almost half (45%) of CEOs forecast revenue growth rates also at 10-20%.Such results were shown by the survey “Business Forecasts 2020” and announced during the special event of the European Business Association “Global Outlook” on 23th of September 2019.

View the Presentation

When budgeting for next year, the CEOs considered a currency rate of UAH 28 / 1$.  For this year, their respective forecast was UAH 30/1$.

A large majority (90%) of managers expect to increase employee salaries in the amount of 5-20%.

At the same time, the number of CEOs wishing to expand staff levels decreased. Nearly half (47%) plan to leave the number of employees unchanged. Only 46% plan to recruit new people due to staff expansion (last year, 58% of CEOs did so).

The study also showed that large-scale investment business projects are not planned, and 67% of CEOs confirmed this.

In addition, the survey defined the top-3 tasks from business for the next year. For a long time, they remain the same – a fight against corruption, judicial reform and establishment of the rule of law, political stability, and good governance.

It is worth noting that the survey conducted in early 2019 demonstrates the same tasks for the country’s leadership, along with the introduction of land reform and a fight against the shadow economy. We hope that businesses’ voice will be heard so that the country can develop.

Additional information: 104 CEOs of EBA member companies took part in the survey “Business Forecast 2020”. The questionnaire consisted of 10 questions.

The EBA survey shows that 75% of member companies’ CEOs expect business development during the next year. Almost half of businessmen (42%) expect 10 to 20% revenue growth, in UAH terms. Prognoses in $ are less optimistic. 43% of CEOs mentioned they expect up to 10% growth. Such results were shown by the survey “Business Forecasts 2019” and announced during the special event of the European Business Association “Global Outlook”.

View the Presentation

Besides, business feels the need for tax and customs reforms, effective public administration, progress in the implementation of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement’s terms, and strengthening of energy security and energy efficiency.

What are the main conclusions of our survey? When planning a budget for the following year, the business owners considered 30 UAH / 1$ on the average. For this year, the forecast was UAH 28 / 1$. In addition, large-scale investment business projects are not planned, and 61% of the CEOs confirmed this.

However, despite currency fluctuations, 58% of all respondents plan to expand the state. 33% of entrepreneurs will leave the state unchanged. In turn, almost half of them expect to increase employee benefits by 10 to 20%.

As a reminder, EBA Investment Index results demonstrate that the following actions are needed to improve the investment climate for the business, namely: launch of the Anti-corruption court, judicial reform, land market reform, reduction of tax pressure on the salary fund, deregulation of the economy, more communicating positive changes and cases, making the state apparatus effective, which in some cases will mean its reduction. According to some respondents, even up to 5 times.

Reference: 106 CEOs of the EBA member companies took part in the survey «Business Forecast 2019». The questionnaire consisted of 10 questions.

In August, we asked key Ukrainian investors about their expectations regarding the state of the country’s economy in 2018. We conduct this research every year on the eve of the active autumn business season to understand how the EBA member companies plan their business activities.

View the presentation

Thus, EBA Business Forecast 2018 includes assessments of the development prospects for their own business, as well as the company’s vision of the future in 2018 against the background of the global economy. Most respondents who shared their views with us work in the service sector – 37%, as well as manufacturing – 27%, construction – 7%, mining – 3%, and other sectors.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Quite a significant percentage – 86% of respondents – confirmed that they expect a positive business growth dynamic in 2018;
• The majority of respondents – 58% (last time there were 46%) do not plan new investment projects for 2018, but at the same time 23% (45% – last year) plan to launch new projects next year;
• The majority (29%) still consider the fight against corruption to be the priority for the Government;
• Most executives 58% have already planned to increase the company’s staff. 9% – will reduce staff in 2018;
• The vast majority – 40% of respondents predict an increase in salaries for available employees by 5-10%;
• Similar to last year, 57% of respondents set the exchange rate 27-28 UAH for 1 USD when planning the budget for 2018.

TRENDS OF BUSINESS ACTIVITIES      

This year’s results showed that a very high percentage of respondents (86%, compared to 74% last year) expect positive business growth dynamics.

At the same time, 34% of managers forecast an income increase in hryvnia by 6-10%, another 15% talk about an increase in income by 20-30%, almost 6% expected growth of more than 30%. Although last year the sentiment was more optimistic, as there was a small percentage (almost 4%) of respondents seeking the growth of 50% or more. The respondents undoubtedly took into account the level of inflation in their calculations.

According to the top managers of EBA member companies, the projected profitability of companies in dollar terms is as follows: the majority of respondents (about 23%) believe that business profitability in 2018 will increase by 10%; another 21% may increase to 20%.

We also learned about investors’ forecasts for profit growth in physical terms for 2018. Accordingly, the largest percentage of respondents (about 40%) expect the growth to 10%, another 16% say the growth to 20% is maximum. And only 7% believe that such growth will not happen at all. For comparison – only 6% of respondents admitted to the income growth by 30% or more in physical terms.

ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

We traditionally asked directors about the barriers that significantly impede the planning of their business activities and development in Ukraine.

Interestingly, this year the business community considers that the fight against corruption and the need for judicial reform is equally important as the priorities for the Government: 29% and 26% respectively. For several seasons in a row, corruption has always been the absolute leader among the negative factors.

The respondents also emphasized other factors:

17% – tax and customs reform

12.5% ​​- political stability and effective management

4% – energy independence and energy efficiency

2% – reduction of government spending

PAY AND EMPLOYMENT 

As most respondents hope for positive business growth dynamics, there is a strong tendency to expand the number of employees in many companies. This sentiment is reflected in the results of our survey: almost 67% of respondents admitted that in 2018 they will hire new employees, 34% will stick to the current number of staff, and only 9% of executives are likely to lay off staff in the next calendar year.

Compared to last year’s results, we see optimistic sentiments this year in terms of wages. Thus, 40% of respondents plan to increase the level of salaries from 10% to 20%, another 37% hope to increase salaries by 5-10%, and 10% – by 5%, and a very small percentage – only 3% of respondents refuse to raise wages.

Just before the new business season start, when most of companies actively plan their strategies of further development and budgeting for the next year, we asked top-managers from EBA member-companies to provide their economic prognoses in the framework of our specific research - EBA Business Forecast 2017.

View the presentation

This topical research covers the development of own business as well as vision of the company’s future in 2017 following the world economic tendencies and globalisation processes.

We would like to share with you the summarised opinions from 117 key investors, most of which work in services - 35%, as well as in such sectors as: manufacturing– 25%, construction – 7%, mining – 3% etc.

MAIN OUTPUTS

• Significant percent – 74% of respondents – predict positive dynamics of business growth in 2017;
• The most of respondents - 46% - do not plan any new investments for 2017. At the same time, 45% eager to launch of new projects next year;
• As it used to be last year the majority of respondents marks combating corruption as a main task for the Government – this time 26.61% of respondents think so;
• Vast majority of top-managers (48%) are not going to change the number of workers. At the same time, 44% have already scheduled the raise of staff members. 9% – will downsize workforce in 2017.
• Vast majority - 41% - forecast 10-20% growth of salaries;
• 23% respondents use currency rate 27-28 UAH for 1 USD while planning their budgets.

BUSINESS ACTIVITY TRENDS

The positive signal lies in high percent of respondents (74%), who expect a positive dynamics for their businesses’ growth. 34% of directors forecast incomes 10-20% growth in UAH, 22% marked 20-30% income growth, 12% pointed 10% income growth. There is also a low percent (almost 4%), who fixed 50% income growth in 2017. In general our respondents are likely to consider the level of inflation when predicting incomes growth. Income growth in USD looks a bit different. For instance, 32% of respondents are likely to predict 10% income growth.

This time we asked top-managers about the rate of growth in volume terms when budgeting for 2017. The highest percent of respondents (32%) look forward to receiving 20-30% growth. 22% of directors pointed their maximum growth rate as 10%, and other 21% forecast no growth at all. And only 2% of respondents marked 50% rate of growth in volume terms for their businesses.

BUSINESS CLIMATE

Corruption in Ukraine is number one barrier in the eyes of business-community. We notice such tendency in several researches simultaneously since we started measuring the status of investment attractiveness of Ukraine. That is why, combating corruption is obviously the most frequent answer (30%) for the question about the main tasks from business for the Government team. Other top answers-tasks are – court system reform and the rule of law – 25%, tax and customs reform - 19%. 15% of respondents pointed that the Cabinet of Ministers should pay attention to the level of political stability and fix the effective management system. 5% more percent of top-managers marked the importance of progress in DCFTA issues and strengthening of EU-Ukraine relations. 4% mentioned the need for energy safety and energy efficiency and 3% think that the Government should cut its spendings.

HUMAN CAPITAL AND SALARIES

Taking into account the fact that a vast majority of respondents forecast the positive dynamics of business growth next year, we can see the trend for expanding the staff in many companies. Our statistics proves that almost 44% of respondents confessed that in 2017 they will probably employ new staff members. 48% are likely to keep the staff composition unchanged. And only 9% are likely to reduce the staff in2017.

More optimistic figures (compared to last year results) we also received in terms of salaries. Thus 41% of respondents plan to increase the salaries for 10-20%. 37% leaders expect to increase salaries for 5-10%, а 10% of respondents forecast 5% salary increase. Only 4% will avoid the increase at all.