Pragmatism, macroeconomic stability and growth: key takeaways from Global Outlook 2026

23/ 02/ 2026

Listen to online Stop   On 17 February, the European Business Association held its annual flagship event, Global Outlook: Success in Adversity. The discussion focused on the role of the state and business in ensuring economic stability, development and Ukraine’s recovery despite ongoing security risks, energy challenges and shifting consumer sentiment. In his first address as President of the EBA, Håkan Jyde, Managing Director of Scania Ukraine, emphasised that his company fully supports Ukraine, continues to develop its operations and create jobs here. He stressed that every business in Ukraine should do the same — support people and strengthen the industry in which it operates. Dialogue with Andriy Pyshnyy, Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine. During the discussion, Andriy Pyshnyy, Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, outlined the key factors underpinning economic resilience in 2026. According to him, the NBU’s task is to “restore normality” and support businesses. In wartime, uncertainty has become the new reality: crisis response scenarios often lose relevance the day after they are developed. However, the banking system, he noted, has not become a source of shocks but rather their “fire extinguisher”. Banks remain profitable, liquid and transparent, and continue lending to businesses. Lending dynamics have already returned to pre-war levels. Macroeconomic stability is largely secured through international support. At the same time, the NBU Governor stressed that such assistance should be viewed not as charity, but as an investment in Europe’s security. Among the NBU’s key objectives are maintaining moderate inflation in 2026–2027 and bringing it to the 5% target in 2028. To achieve this, the regulator is pursuing a flexible inflation-targeting policy, ensuring the attractiveness of hryvnia-denominated instruments and safeguarding foreign exchange market stability. The National Bank continues to balance macro-financial stability with support for economic growth. Panel I. Stability & Resilience. Business Ombudsman Anka Feldhusen outlined her priorities for 2026 in her new role: European integration and enhanced communication between the government and the business community. She sees the Business Ombudsman Council as a mediator between the two sides. Regarding improving Ukraine’s investment attractiveness, she noted that wartime risks remain an objective reality that each investor assesses independently. However, it is essential to provide investors with up-to-date information about operating conditions in Ukraine, as well as clear rules and institutions that demonstrate resilience and effectiveness. Ukraine’s EU accession prospects could serve as a compelling argument for investors. From the government, the Business Ombudsman expects coordinated decisions and greater consistency in policymaking. Serhii Kovalenko, CEO of D.Solutions (YASNO brand), focused on key principles of crisis management. The first, he said, is choice; the second is non-discrete planning. Companies are forced to make difficult decisions continuously and to rebuild destroyed infrastructure time and again. Planning, he suggested, should not be done in segments but in “rays” — with a clear starting point but no predictable end. He also shared his outlook for the energy sector in 2026. Nataliia Kondratchuk, Director of Corporate Finance at OTP Bank Ukraine, spoke about financial instruments that have proven effective in recent years and outlined the overall situation in the banking sector. “In 2025, the bank’s corporate loan portfolio grew by nearly 30%, and the plan for concluding new agreements was exceeded by 20%. At the same time, we see reduced demand for large long-term investment loans and growing demand for short-term financing. The bank is adapting to clients’ needs, introducing automation and digitalisation of services, providing fast loans to agricultural producers, and more,” she noted. Panel II. Growth & Competitiveness. Tomas Fiala, CEO of Dragon Capital, presented a macro-financial forecast for 2026. Given the continuation of the active phase of the war and electricity shortages, expected GDP growth is around 1%. Despite this, the budget deficit is expected to remain financed thanks to international partners — with approximately $50 billion anticipated. Under these conditions, the macroeconomic environment remains relatively stable, allowing businesses to operate profitably. Håkan Jyde also addressed developments in logistics, particularly in industrial road freight transport. He noted that demand for trucks in Ukraine is currently lower than in many European countries, yet the market’s potential remains significant, especially in view of future reconstruction. Among the key challenges are shortages of drivers and mechanics. The company is implementing training programmes for female truck drivers, although this alone is insufficient to fully meet market demand. Olena Vdovychenko, CEO of METRO Ukraine, spoke about the situation in retail. She noted that the sector continues to grow despite security risks, supply chain disruptions, systematic cases of unjustified fines imposed by tax authorities, and the challenging energy situation. Last year, growth amounted to 18%, half of which was inflation-driven and half real sales growth. Key drivers include digitalisation, automation and the use of AI as a supporting tool, as well as investment in human capital. She also highlighted changes in consumer sentiment over the years of war: demand has become more restrained, with a focus on essential goods and promotional offers. This behaviour can be described as “pragmatism with small indulgences” — reflecting the emotional balance consumers seek. The European Business Association expresses its gratitude to the event’s General Partner — OTP Bank, beverage partners — METRO Cash & Carry and Coca-Cola, as well as the social partner — the national programme Save the Limb.

On 17 February, the European Business Association held its annual flagship event, Global Outlook: Success in Adversity. The discussion focused on the role of the state and business in ensuring economic stability, development and Ukraine’s recovery despite ongoing security risks, energy challenges and shifting consumer sentiment.

In his first address as President of the EBA, Håkan Jyde, Managing Director of Scania Ukraine, emphasised that his company fully supports Ukraine, continues to develop its operations and create jobs here. He stressed that every business in Ukraine should do the same — support people and strengthen the industry in which it operates.

Dialogue with Andriy Pyshnyy, Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine

During the discussion, Andriy Pyshnyy, Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, outlined the key factors underpinning economic resilience in 2026. According to him, the NBU’s task is to “restore normality” and support businesses. In wartime, uncertainty has become the new reality: crisis response scenarios often lose relevance the day after they are developed.

However, the banking system, he noted, has not become a source of shocks but rather their “fire extinguisher”. Banks remain profitable, liquid and transparent, and continue lending to businesses. Lending dynamics have already returned to pre-war levels.

Macroeconomic stability is largely secured through international support. At the same time, the NBU Governor stressed that such assistance should be viewed not as charity, but as an investment in Europe’s security.

Among the NBU’s key objectives are maintaining moderate inflation in 2026–2027 and bringing it to the 5% target in 2028. To achieve this, the regulator is pursuing a flexible inflation-targeting policy, ensuring the attractiveness of hryvnia-denominated instruments and safeguarding foreign exchange market stability. The National Bank continues to balance macro-financial stability with support for economic growth.

Panel I. Stability & Resilience

Business Ombudsman Anka Feldhusen outlined her priorities for 2026 in her new role: European integration and enhanced communication between the government and the business community. She sees the Business Ombudsman Council as a mediator between the two sides.

Regarding improving Ukraine’s investment attractiveness, she noted that wartime risks remain an objective reality that each investor assesses independently. However, it is essential to provide investors with up-to-date information about operating conditions in Ukraine, as well as clear rules and institutions that demonstrate resilience and effectiveness. Ukraine’s EU accession prospects could serve as a compelling argument for investors. From the government, the Business Ombudsman expects coordinated decisions and greater consistency in policymaking.

Serhii Kovalenko, CEO of D.Solutions (YASNO brand), focused on key principles of crisis management. The first, he said, is choice; the second is non-discrete planning. Companies are forced to make difficult decisions continuously and to rebuild destroyed infrastructure time and again. Planning, he suggested, should not be done in segments but in “rays” — with a clear starting point but no predictable end. He also shared his outlook for the energy sector in 2026.

Nataliia Kondratchuk, Director of Corporate Finance at OTP Bank Ukraine, spoke about financial instruments that have proven effective in recent years and outlined the overall situation in the banking sector.

“In 2025, the bank’s corporate loan portfolio grew by nearly 30%, and the plan for concluding new agreements was exceeded by 20%. At the same time, we see reduced demand for large long-term investment loans and growing demand for short-term financing. The bank is adapting to clients’ needs, introducing automation and digitalisation of services, providing fast loans to agricultural producers, and more,” she noted.

Panel II. Growth & Competitiveness

Tomas Fiala, CEO of Dragon Capital, presented a macro-financial forecast for 2026. Given the continuation of the active phase of the war and electricity shortages, expected GDP growth is around 1%. Despite this, the budget deficit is expected to remain financed thanks to international partners — with approximately $50 billion anticipated. Under these conditions, the macroeconomic environment remains relatively stable, allowing businesses to operate profitably.

Håkan Jyde also addressed developments in logistics, particularly in industrial road freight transport. He noted that demand for trucks in Ukraine is currently lower than in many European countries, yet the market’s potential remains significant, especially in view of future reconstruction. Among the key challenges are shortages of drivers and mechanics. The company is implementing training programmes for female truck drivers, although this alone is insufficient to fully meet market demand.

Olena Vdovychenko, CEO of METRO Ukraine, spoke about the situation in retail. She noted that the sector continues to grow despite security risks, supply chain disruptions, systematic cases of unjustified fines imposed by tax authorities, and the challenging energy situation. Last year, growth amounted to 18%, half of which was inflation-driven and half real sales growth. Key drivers include digitalisation, automation and the use of AI as a supporting tool, as well as investment in human capital.

She also highlighted changes in consumer sentiment over the years of war: demand has become more restrained, with a focus on essential goods and promotional offers. This behaviour can be described as “pragmatism with small indulgences” — reflecting the emotional balance consumers seek.

The European Business Association expresses its gratitude to the event’s General Partner — OTP Bank, beverage partners — METRO Cash & Carry and Coca-Cola, as well as the social partner — the national programme Save the Limb.