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War-related Displacement Shaped Leasing Activity Amid an Unprecedented Decline in Supply

29/ 10/ 2026
  Kyiv – October 28, 2026 – According to the latest research of EXPANDIA, Country Service Partner for CBRE in Ukraine and Moldova and the largest commercial real estate company in Ukraine, during the first eight months of 2026, a relatively positive H1 was followed by an exceptionally challenging July–August period as attacks on logistics infrastructure intensified. By the end of August 2026, take-up reached approximately 180,000 sqm (+6% y-o-y), extending the strong momentum recorded in 2025. While organic demand was more evident in Q1–Q2 2026, activity in July–August became increasingly driven by relocations. As a result, war-related displacement shaped leasing activity, with relocations and relocation-driven expansions accounting for 82% of deals, versus 18% for pure expansions. Leasing activity remained concentrated among Logistics & 3PL operators (42%), Wholesale & Retail Trade companies (38%), and FMCG companies (20%). Heightened security risks continued to influence occupier strategies, with larger companies increasingly diversifying inventories across western Ukraine to strengthen business continuity. During 2026, the Kyiv warehouse market experienced an unprecedented contraction in professional stock amid intensified missile attacks on warehouses. The contraction occurred despite substantial development activity, with around 150,000 sqm of new supply delivered in H1 2026 (+28% y-o-y). By the end of June, competitive stock had fully recovered to approximately 1.6 million sqm, its pre-war 2021 level. However, subsequent destruction reversed this recovery, reducing competitive stock to approximately 1.05 million sqm by the end of August (–34% YTD). New development increasingly served to replace the lost stock rather than increase supply. Source: EXPANDIA, 2026 The extensive loss of warehouse stock pushed market availability to a critical minimum, as damaged and destroyed properties were physically removed from the stock. Moreover, displaced occupiers generated additional requirements for replacement space. As a result, vacancy fell to a technical minimum of below 1% by the end of August 2026 (–2.5 pp YTD), leaving virtually no immediately available modern warehouse space. The shortage of high-quality warehouses was particularly acute in multi-temperature segments, where supply had already been historically limited. Source: EXPANDIA, 2026  Rental growth accelerated in 2026 amid tightening availability and substantial losses of warehouse stock. Prime effective rent for ambient warehouses increased by 8% YTD to $5.7/sqm/month as of August 2026, net of VAT and OPEX. Leasing transactions remained predominantly UAH-denominated, although USD-denominated deals became more frequent. Nataliia Sokyrko, Head of Industrial & Logistics Brokerage, EXPANDIA: “Kyiv warehouse market is expected to remain in a period of recalibration through the remainder of 2026 following the unprecedented loss of stock. The full impact on occupier and developer strategies is still unfolding, making the near-term market trajectory unusually difficult to predict. We expect occupier demand to remain strong due to replacement requirements and underlying demand from core occupier groups; however, critically low availability is likely to constrain actual take-up. Upcoming deliveries will provide limited relief but will not offset recent stock losses. A broader development recovery will depend on improved security conditions, with developers remaining cautious towards speculative projects; build-to-suit and owner-occupied development may therefore become increasingly relevant for occupiers unable to secure suitable existing space on the open market”. * * * About EXPANDIA: EXPANDIA is the largest commercial real estate company in Ukraine. Founded in January 2008, it operated under the brand CBRE Ukraine as part of the CBRE affiliate network. Since August 2025, company has been operating under its own brand, EXPANDIA, and continue to serve as a Country Service Partner for CBRE in Ukraine and Moldova. Company has more than 350 professionals, including on-site staff at properties under management in Ukraine and Moldova. Its management portfolio covers over 1,000,000 sqm of commercial real estate across more than 20 regions. EXPANDIA provides a wide range of services in the commercial real estate sector: advisory and transaction; capital markets; integrated facility management; valuation and advisory; project management and building consultancy; corporate facility management services. Please visit our website at www.expandia-ukraine.com

Kyiv – October 28, 2026 – According to the latest research of EXPANDIA, Country Service Partner for CBRE in Ukraine and Moldova and the largest commercial real estate company in Ukraine, during the first eight months of 2026, a relatively positive H1 was followed by an exceptionally challenging July–August period as attacks on logistics infrastructure intensified.

By the end of August 2026, take-up reached approximately 180,000 sqm (+6% y-o-y), extending the strong momentum recorded in 2025. While organic demand was more evident in Q1–Q2 2026, activity in July–August became increasingly driven by relocations. As a result, war-related displacement shaped leasing activity, with relocations and relocation-driven expansions accounting for 82% of deals, versus 18% for pure expansions.

Leasing activity remained concentrated among Logistics & 3PL operators (42%), Wholesale & Retail Trade companies (38%), and FMCG companies (20%). Heightened security risks continued to influence occupier strategies, with larger companies increasingly diversifying inventories across western Ukraine to strengthen business continuity.

During 2026, the Kyiv warehouse market experienced an unprecedented contraction in professional stock amid intensified missile attacks on warehouses. The contraction occurred despite substantial development activity, with around 150,000 sqm of new supply delivered in H1 2026 (+28% y-o-y).

By the end of June, competitive stock had fully recovered to approximately 1.6 million sqm, its pre-war 2021 level. However, subsequent destruction reversed this recovery, reducing competitive stock to approximately 1.05 million sqm by the end of August (–34% YTD). New development increasingly served to replace the lost stock rather than increase supply.

Source: EXPANDIA, 2026

The extensive loss of warehouse stock pushed market availability to a critical minimum, as damaged and destroyed properties were physically removed from the stock. Moreover, displaced occupiers generated additional requirements for replacement space. As a result, vacancy fell to a technical minimum of below 1% by the end of August 2026 (–2.5 pp YTD), leaving virtually no immediately available modern warehouse space. The shortage of high-quality warehouses was particularly acute in multi-temperature segments, where supply had already been historically limited.

Source: EXPANDIA, 2026 

Rental growth accelerated in 2026 amid tightening availability and substantial losses of warehouse stock. Prime effective rent for ambient warehouses increased by 8% YTD to $5.7/sqm/month as of August 2026, net of VAT and OPEX. Leasing transactions remained predominantly UAH-denominated, although USD-denominated deals became more frequent.

Nataliia Sokyrko, Head of Industrial & Logistics Brokerage, EXPANDIA:

“Kyiv warehouse market is expected to remain in a period of recalibration through the remainder of 2026 following the unprecedented loss of stock. The full impact on occupier and developer strategies is still unfolding, making the near-term market trajectory unusually difficult to predict. We expect occupier demand to remain strong due to replacement requirements and underlying demand from core occupier groups; however, critically low availability is likely to constrain actual take-up.

Upcoming deliveries will provide limited relief but will not offset recent stock losses. A broader development recovery will depend on improved security conditions, with developers remaining cautious towards speculative projects; build-to-suit and owner-occupied development may therefore become increasingly relevant for occupiers unable to secure suitable existing space on the open market”.

* * *

About EXPANDIA:

EXPANDIA is the largest commercial real estate company in Ukraine. Founded in January 2008, it operated under the brand CBRE Ukraine as part of the CBRE affiliate network. Since August 2025, company has been operating under its own brand, EXPANDIA, and continue to serve as a Country Service Partner for CBRE in Ukraine and Moldova.

Company has more than 350 professionals, including on-site staff at properties under management in Ukraine and Moldova. Its management portfolio covers over 1,000,000 sqm of commercial real estate across more than 20 regions. EXPANDIA provides a wide range of services in the commercial real estate sector: advisory and transaction; capital markets; integrated facility management; valuation and advisory; project management and building consultancy; corporate facility management services. Please visit our website at www.expandia-ukraine.com

This material is provided by a member company or partner organization of the European Business Association as part of an informational collaboration. The Association is not responsible for the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. The views, opinions, and recommendations expressed in this material are solely those of the authors and do not reflect the official position of the European Business Association.

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