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Sharp increase in mineral prices could paralyse the subsoil use sector in 2025

31/ 01/ 2025
  Representatives of the Subsoil Use Committee of the European Business Association once again emphasise the shortcomings in the approach to determining prices for units of commercial products produced by mining enterprises. According to experts, the sharp rise in mineral prices published for Q3 2024 has effectively halted the acquisition of new special subsoil use permits via auctions. A similar situation has arisen with existing special permits, where actions require fee payments. This primarily affects minerals with the most significant price increases. EBA experts warn that given this market trend, the publication of prices for Q1 2025 could lead to a prolonged sectoral standstill—potentially until the end of 2025. The need to revise pricing approaches Businesses stress that the continued lack of regulation in this matter could have serious consequences for the sector’s investment attractiveness. Excessively high starting prices for special permits may render extraction unprofitable, leading to reduced budget revenues and an overall economic downturn. For example, in Q1 2024, the price of sand was UAH 161 per cubic metre, whereas by Q4, it had surged to UAH 4,427.3 per cubic metre. Such a nearly 30-fold price increase within a single year directly affects the final cost of construction materials and could negatively impact Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts. Industry representatives are also concerned that the approved prices do not reflect market realities and, for some minerals, exceed market values by more than 26 times. Business supports changes but no real updates yet The Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources of Ukraine and the State Service of Geology and Mineral Resources of Ukraine have developed a draft amendment to the methodology for determining the starting price of special subsoil use permits at auctions (electronic bidding). The business community welcomes this step but notes that no actual changes have yet been implemented. The EBA has already appealed to the relevant ministries and agencies, urging them to revise the approach to pricing mining enterprise products and setting starting prices for special permits. Businesses expect prompt amendments to the methodology, which would unblock the sector and facilitate its development.

Representatives of the Subsoil Use Committee of the European Business Association once again emphasise the shortcomings in the approach to determining prices for units of commercial products produced by mining enterprises. According to experts, the sharp rise in mineral prices published for Q3 2024 has effectively halted the acquisition of new special subsoil use permits via auctions.

A similar situation has arisen with existing special permits, where actions require fee payments. This primarily affects minerals with the most significant price increases. EBA experts warn that given this market trend, the publication of prices for Q1 2025 could lead to a prolonged sectoral standstill—potentially until the end of 2025.

The need to revise pricing approaches

Businesses stress that the continued lack of regulation in this matter could have serious consequences for the sector’s investment attractiveness. Excessively high starting prices for special permits may render extraction unprofitable, leading to reduced budget revenues and an overall economic downturn.

For example, in Q1 2024, the price of sand was UAH 161 per cubic metre, whereas by Q4, it had surged to UAH 4,427.3 per cubic metre. Such a nearly 30-fold price increase within a single year directly affects the final cost of construction materials and could negatively impact Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts.

Industry representatives are also concerned that the approved prices do not reflect market realities and, for some minerals, exceed market values by more than 26 times.

Business supports changes but no real updates yet

The Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources of Ukraine and the State Service of Geology and Mineral Resources of Ukraine have developed a draft amendment to the methodology for determining the starting price of special subsoil use permits at auctions (electronic bidding). The business community welcomes this step but notes that no actual changes have yet been implemented.

The EBA has already appealed to the relevant ministries and agencies, urging them to revise the approach to pricing mining enterprise products and setting starting prices for special permits. Businesses expect prompt amendments to the methodology, which would unblock the sector and facilitate its development.

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