Military winter forecasts and action plan for business

01/ 12/ 2022

On December 1, the EBA Business Protection and Security Committee held a meeting on the topic Forecasts of the military winter, what business should do given maximum instability. Below we share key scenarios and recommendations: How will military events develop? According to experts, a new aggravation of the military situation is possible in the first half of December. North-western regions, namely, Volyn, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, and Kyiv regions are at risk. The purpose of these potential attacks is to undermine the situation in the country, blocking the operation of businesses and the population, and evacuation routes, so you need to provide yourself with fuel in advance and have a plan in case of escalation. Besides, there is a high probability of a new wave of russian sabotage in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions. At the same time, we must remember that a war of destruction is being waged against our country, so there is no region where it would be completely safe. But if you choose between being in a big city or in a small one, then in terms of security, the latter option is still safer according to experts. And what about the energy situation? Terrorist attacks in russia damaged about 70-80% of the distribution infrastructure to varying degrees. In addition, the regional clusters are outdated, so it is impossible to compensate for the deficit of another region at the expense of the generation of one region. Thus, interruptions are likely to continue throughout the winter, and the situation may improve in 3 months under the optimistic scenario, or in 6 months under the realistic scenario. There is also a pessimistic scenario. If the infrastructure is severely damaged, Ukraine can expect large-scale blackouts, for example, up to 10 days without electricity, heat, and communication. Meanwhile, it is worth noting that the energy system is adapting to the attacks. Thus, Ukrainian power engineers are heroically holding their front – not just rebuilding the damaged infrastructure, but rebuilding it, expanding the power grid, and increasing the capacity for electricity distribution. So how should businesses act? Constantly analyze the situation. Thus, the probability of a russian invasion in winter will depend on three factors – the weather, the speed of russias training mobilized, and the sentiments of the international community. Following these data, we can roughly determine the timing of a new large-scale attack. In addition, the information field is currently subject to fakes and the spread of harmful narratives, so we need to be critical of the received information. Be aware of the danger and prepare for it. The sense of security in the conditions that Ukrainians live in now is false. Therefore, we cannot relax, especially businesses, which should have an action plan for the evacuation of assets, as well as a stock of essentials. Adapt to work in emergency conditions. Critical businesses should beware of sabotage, as there is a high risk of provocations from russia. It is necessary to be careful when working in the newly de-occupied territories, as well as to check suspicious employees, conduct security training for staff, and keep armed guards. At the same time, citizens should have the following set with them when going to the city: a power bank, paper book, thermos with tea, warm sweater, some snack bars, blanket, flashlight, charged phone, knife, alcohol wipes, medicines, matches, documents. Despite the difficult conditions, businesses will continue to work and keep the economic front. The European Business Association thanks Sergiy Pogrebniy, Senior Partner of Sayenko Kharenko, founder of SK Security and military analyst for useful recommendations and detailed analysis of the situation for the winter season!

On December 1, the EBA Business Protection and Security Committee held a meeting on the topic “Forecasts of the military winter, what business should do given maximum instability”. Below we share key scenarios and recommendations:

How will military events develop?

According to experts, a new aggravation of the military situation is possible in the first half of December. North-western regions, namely, Volyn, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, and Kyiv regions are at risk. The purpose of these potential attacks is to undermine the situation in the country, blocking the operation of businesses and the population, and evacuation routes, so you need to provide yourself with fuel in advance and have a plan in case of escalation. Besides, there is a high probability of a new wave of russian sabotage in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions. At the same time, we must remember that a war of destruction is being waged against our country, so there is no region where it would be completely safe. But if you choose between being in a big city or in a small one, then in terms of security, the latter option is still safer according to experts.

And what about the energy situation?

Terrorist attacks in russia damaged about 70-80% of the distribution infrastructure to varying degrees. In addition, the regional clusters are outdated, so it is impossible to compensate for the deficit of another region at the expense of the generation of one region. Thus, interruptions are likely to continue throughout the winter, and the situation may improve in 3 months under the optimistic scenario, or in 6 months under the realistic scenario. There is also a pessimistic scenario. If the infrastructure is severely damaged, Ukraine can expect large-scale blackouts, for example, up to 10 days without electricity, heat, and communication. Meanwhile, it is worth noting that the energy system is adapting to the attacks. Thus, Ukrainian power engineers are heroically holding their front – not just rebuilding the damaged infrastructure, but rebuilding it, expanding the power grid, and increasing the capacity for electricity distribution.

So how should businesses act?

Constantly analyze the situation. Thus, the probability of a russian invasion in winter will depend on three factors – the weather, the speed of russia’s training mobilized, and the sentiments of the international community. Following these data, we can roughly determine the timing of a new large-scale attack. In addition, the information field is currently subject to fakes and the spread of harmful narratives, so we need to be critical of the received information.
Be aware of the danger and prepare for it. The sense of security in the conditions that Ukrainians live in now is false. Therefore, we cannot relax, especially businesses, which should have an action plan for the evacuation of assets, as well as a stock of essentials.
Adapt to work in emergency conditions. Critical businesses should beware of sabotage, as there is a high risk of provocations from russia. It is necessary to be careful when working in the newly de-occupied territories, as well as to check suspicious employees, conduct security training for staff, and keep armed guards.

At the same time, citizens should have the following set with them when going to the city: a power bank, paper book, thermos with tea, warm sweater, some snack bars, blanket, flashlight, charged phone, knife, alcohol wipes, medicines, matches, documents.

Despite the difficult conditions, businesses will continue to work and keep the economic front. The European Business Association thanks Sergiy Pogrebniy, Senior Partner of Sayenko Kharenko, founder of SK Security and military analyst for useful recommendations and detailed analysis of the situation for the winter season!