47% of businesses in Ukraine expect growth next year despite the war

20/ 09/ 2022

Nearly half of the member companies of the European Business Association are positive about their business development in 2023. These are the conclusions of the study «Business Forecast 2023 which was conducted by the EBA and Raiffeisen Bank with analytical support from Gradus Research. This years results demonstrate an expected deterioration in the sentiments and forecasts of top managers. For comparison, last year 83% of CEOs made positive forecasts. View the presentation 28% of directors expect to maintain business indicators at the current level in 2023, and 25% expect a deterioration in the state of business (last year there were only 2%). Most companies expect a positive financial result next year. Thus, 58% of respondents expect income growth in hryvnia, and 43% – in real terms. At the same time, 31% expect an increase in hryvnia income up to 10%. Also, 31% of directors predict a fall in hryvnia revenues and 36% – in real terms. When planning budgets for 2023, company managers set the value of the currency at an average of UAH 43/$. We will remind you that for the past two years, forecasts for the hryvnia exchange rate remained constant at the level of UAH 29/$. Only 1 in 5 CEOs plans to hire new employees next year. The majority, namely 53%, say they will keep the team unchanged, and the other 28% will resort to downsizing. At the same time, last year more than half of the companies planned to hire more staff. Only 1% of companies plan to cut wages in 2023, another 26% will keep them at the current level. At the same time, 73% planned to raise wages for employees, of which 40% will raise wages at the level of 10% to 20%. For comparison, all respondents of last years survey planned to increase the salaries of their employees. Compared to last year, the number of CEOs planning to implement new investment projects decreased by a third – only 19% of companies reported this. The average cost of the planned projects is about 3 million dollars. On the other hand, the number of companies planning to invest in social initiatives has increased, so these are 60% currently. On average, businesses are ready to allocate about 8% of their income to social projects. That is significantly more than the previous figure of up to 3% of the companys income. Anna Derevyanko. EBA Executive Director. The incredible resilience demonstrated by business in Ukraine deserves respect. We see a confident focus of businesses on people, teams, and communities. Increased investments in social initiatives and the support of employees are the proof of the long-term commitment of companies that are ready and willing to continue operating in Ukraine despite the most terrible challenges. The CEOs also identified the TOP-3 tasks for the next year to be considered by the Government. The first two tasks have remained unchanged for several years in a row. The first is the need to carry out judicial reform and establish the rule of law, the second place is the fight against corruption. Macroeconomic stability is named by the business leaders as the third priority for the next year as it is security is the basis of the future recovery and reconstruction of Ukraine. Partners For reference: 104 CEOs of member companies of the European Business Association participated in the study Business Forecast 2023. They had to answer 10 questions of the survey during August-September 2022. The Business Forecast study has been conducted by the Association for the 7th year in a row. The study partner in 2022 is Raiffeisen Bank, the analytical partner is Gradus Research.

View the presentation

28% of directors expect to maintain business indicators at the current level in 2023, and 25% expect a deterioration in the state of business (last year there were only 2%).

Most companies expect a positive financial result next year. Thus, 58% of respondents expect income growth in hryvnia, and 43% – in real terms. At the same time, 31% expect an increase in hryvnia income up to 10%. Also, 31% of directors predict a fall in hryvnia revenues and 36% – in real terms.

When planning budgets for 2023, company managers set the value of the currency at an average of UAH 43/$. We will remind you that for the past two years, forecasts for the hryvnia exchange rate remained constant at the level of UAH 29/$.

Only 1 in 5 CEOs plans to hire new employees next year. The majority, namely 53%, say they will keep the team unchanged, and the other 28% will resort to downsizing. At the same time, last year more than half of the companies planned to hire more staff.

Only 1% of companies plan to cut wages in 2023, another 26% will keep them at the current level. At the same time, 73% planned to raise wages for employees, of which 40% will raise wages at the level of 10% to 20%. For comparison, all respondents of last year’s survey planned to increase the salaries of their employees.

Compared to last year, the number of CEOs planning to implement new investment projects decreased by a third – only 19% of companies reported this. The average cost of the planned projects is about 3 million dollars. On the other hand, the number of companies planning to invest in social initiatives has increased, so these are 60% currently. On average, businesses are ready to allocate about 8% of their income to social projects. That is significantly more than the previous figure of up to 3% of the company’s income.

Anna Derevyanko EBA Executive Director

The incredible resilience demonstrated by business in Ukraine deserves respect. We see a confident focus of businesses on people, teams, and communities. Increased investments in social initiatives and the support of employees are the proof of the long-term commitment of companies that are ready and willing to continue operating in Ukraine despite the most terrible challenges.

The CEOs also identified the TOP-3 tasks for the next year to be considered by the Government. The first two tasks have remained unchanged for several years in a row. The first is the need to carry out judicial reform and establish the rule of law, the second place is the fight against corruption. Macroeconomic stability is named by the business leaders as the third priority for the next year as it is security is the basis of the future recovery and reconstruction of Ukraine.

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For reference:

104 CEOs of member companies of the European Business Association participated in the study “Business Forecast 2023”. They had to answer 10 questions of the survey during August-September 2022. The Business Forecast study has been conducted by the Association for the 7th year in a row. The study partner in 2022 is Raiffeisen Bank, the analytical partner is Gradus Research.