Leadership without guarantees: how to lead when the rules of the game are constantly changing

05/ 05/ 2026

Listen to online Stop   Olesya Ulyanova. СЕО Telesens IT For a long time, we believed that management was about control, predictability, and the right answers. But today’s reality is different. The market changes faster than strategies can be approved. Technology is reshaping business models every year. Teams work remotely, and the planning horizon has shrunk to a quarter. In such an environment, stability is no longer a prerequisite for leadership. Leadership is becoming the ability to make decisions without the full picture, without undermining trust and focus. The illusion of complete information. The most common trap for a leader is to wait for enough clarity. “Let’s gather a little more data,” “let’s wait for a signal from the market,” “let’s hold another meeting.” In a stable world, this is caution. In an unstable one, it’s a loss of momentum. There will never be complete information. Trying to gather it often only creates the illusion of control. In my experience, the key question is different: do we understand the logic behind our actions? When a leader can explain the rationale behind a decision even with an incomplete picture, the team is ready to move forward. When there is no logic, even a hundred slides won’t instill confidence. A solution as a hypothesis. In a state of uncertainty, a decision is not a truth but a hypothesis with a review date. I’ve seen companies get stuck because they were afraid of making mistakes. And I’ve seen others move faster because they allowed themselves to adjust course. The phrase “we’ll test this direction for 6 weeks” alleviates the fear of making a mistake and provides a sense of control through the testing cycle. In this model, a leader doesn’t cling to being right, but to the ability to adapt. Short strategic cycles. Strategy no longer spans years. It operates in short cycles. The long-term horizon remains, but the path toward it is broken down into 90-day focus periods. This is the discipline of prioritization. When “everything is important” at once, the team fragments into micro-initiatives. When 2–3 key areas are clearly defined, energy emerges. In “Antimanager,” I write extensively about personal and team focus as a skill without which strategic endurance is impossible. The permanent and the changing. The team can handle changes in processes, but it cannot tolerate a lack of clarity regarding principles. In times of turbulence, it is especially important to articulate what remains unchanged: values, quality standards, ethical boundaries, and our approach to customers. I always come back to the question: what is non-negotiable for us? If the strategy changes but the principles remain—the team adapts. If the principles change—internal disintegration occurs. Transparency instead of the illusion of certainty. In a crisis, it’s tempting to project absolute confidence. But people are very good at detecting insincerity. It’s better to say, “We don’t have the full picture, but here’s the reasoning behind our decision.” Transparency builds trust more effectively than artificial optimism. Leadership today isn’t about putting on a show; it’s about thinking clearly and speaking your mind. Thought delegation. In times of instability, centralized management becomes a bottleneck. A leader cannot be the sole source of analysis. Thinking must be delegated. This means creating a culture where people ask questions, propose alternatives, and take responsibility for a share of the uncertainty. Companies that survive turbulence are those with distributed thinking. This very idea runs like a thread through my books: developing team autonomy as a strategic advantage. Three tools that actually work. 3×3 Decision Frame. Before making a difficult decision, the team answers three questions: what do we know for sure, what is an assumption, and what is a risk. Next, they identify three possible scenarios: optimistic, base case, and worst-case. This simple framework reduces emotional bias and helps structure uncertainty. It allows the team to act without the illusion of complete clarity. 90-Day Focus Board. A single public document or dashboard with three strategic priorities for 90 days, success criteria, and responsible parties. Everything else is secondary. Once a month, there is a rigorous review: what to keep, what to remove. This disciplines thinking and reduces strategic noise. After-Action Review without assigning blame. After every significant decision or release, the team answers four questions: what was planned, what actually happened, why it happened, and what we’ll change going forward. It’s forbidden to assign personal blame. It’s allowed to analyze systemic errors. This tool fosters a culture of learning rather than a culture of fear. These approaches don’t seem revolutionary. But they work because they create structure where the external structure is unstable. The leaders inner stability. The hardest part isn’t the market or the competition. The hardest part is managing your own anxiety. Uncertainty triggers the fear of losing control. If a leader doesn’t work through this internal state, they begin to compensate for it with over-control or abrupt decisions. “Anti-manager” refers to a leader’s inner resilience, because without it, no methodology works. A company can weather turbulence only to the extent that its leaders can withstand their own uncertainty. Conclusion. Leadership without stability is not chaos. It is a disciplined way of thinking, transparency in decision-making, and the systematic development of autonomy. Today’s strong leader is not someone who has all the answers, but someone who creates an environment where decisions are made quickly, reviewed without drama, and underpinned by trust. And this is not a one-time skill, but systematic work on oneself and the team. That is why developing managerial thinking is no longer an option, but a necessity for those who want to lead a company forward, even when the rules of the game change.

Olesya Ulyanova

СЕО Telesens IT

For a long time, we believed that management was about control, predictability, and the right answers. But today’s reality is different. The market changes faster than strategies can be approved. Technology is reshaping business models every year. Teams work remotely, and the planning horizon has shrunk to a quarter. In such an environment, stability is no longer a prerequisite for leadership. Leadership is becoming the ability to make decisions without the full picture, without undermining trust and focus.

The illusion of complete information

The most common trap for a leader is to wait for enough clarity. “Let’s gather a little more data,” “let’s wait for a signal from the market,” “let’s hold another meeting.” In a stable world, this is caution. In an unstable one, it’s a loss of momentum. There will never be complete information. Trying to gather it often only creates the illusion of control. In my experience, the key question is different: do we understand the logic behind our actions? When a leader can explain the rationale behind a decision even with an incomplete picture, the team is ready to move forward. When there is no logic, even a hundred slides won’t instill confidence.

A solution as a hypothesis

In a state of uncertainty, a decision is not a truth but a hypothesis with a review date. I’ve seen companies get stuck because they were afraid of making mistakes. And I’ve seen others move faster because they allowed themselves to adjust course. The phrase “we’ll test this direction for 6 weeks” alleviates the fear of making a mistake and provides a sense of control through the testing cycle. In this model, a leader doesn’t cling to being right, but to the ability to adapt.

Short strategic cycles

Strategy no longer spans years. It operates in short cycles. The long-term horizon remains, but the path toward it is broken down into 90-day focus periods. This is the discipline of prioritization. When “everything is important” at once, the team fragments into micro-initiatives. When 2–3 key areas are clearly defined, energy emerges. In “Antimanager,” I write extensively about personal and team focus as a skill without which strategic endurance is impossible.

The permanent and the changing

The team can handle changes in processes, but it cannot tolerate a lack of clarity regarding principles. In times of turbulence, it is especially important to articulate what remains unchanged: values, quality standards, ethical boundaries, and our approach to customers. I always come back to the question: what is non-negotiable for us? If the strategy changes but the principles remain—the team adapts. If the principles change—internal disintegration occurs.

Transparency instead of the illusion of certainty

In a crisis, it’s tempting to project absolute confidence. But people are very good at detecting insincerity. It’s better to say, “We don’t have the full picture, but here’s the reasoning behind our decision.” Transparency builds trust more effectively than artificial optimism. Leadership today isn’t about putting on a show; it’s about thinking clearly and speaking your mind.

Thought delegation

In times of instability, centralized management becomes a bottleneck. A leader cannot be the sole source of analysis. Thinking must be delegated. This means creating a culture where people ask questions, propose alternatives, and take responsibility for a share of the uncertainty. Companies that survive turbulence are those with distributed thinking. This very idea runs like a thread through my books: developing team autonomy as a strategic advantage.

Three tools that actually work

1. 3×3 Decision Frame. Before making a difficult decision, the team answers three questions: what do we know for sure, what is an assumption, and what is a risk. Next, they identify three possible scenarios: optimistic, base case, and worst-case. This simple framework reduces emotional bias and helps structure uncertainty. It allows the team to act without the illusion of complete clarity.
2. 90-Day Focus Board. A single public document or dashboard with three strategic priorities for 90 days, success criteria, and responsible parties. Everything else is secondary. Once a month, there is a rigorous review: what to keep, what to remove. This disciplines thinking and reduces strategic noise.
3. After-Action Review without assigning blame. After every significant decision or release, the team answers four questions: what was planned, what actually happened, why it happened, and what we’ll change going forward. It’s forbidden to assign personal blame. It’s allowed to analyze systemic errors. This tool fosters a culture of learning rather than a culture of fear.

These approaches don’t seem revolutionary. But they work because they create structure where the external structure is unstable.

The leader’s inner stability

The hardest part isn’t the market or the competition. The hardest part is managing your own anxiety. Uncertainty triggers the fear of losing control. If a leader doesn’t work through this internal state, they begin to compensate for it with over-control or abrupt decisions. “Anti-manager” refers to a leader’s inner resilience, because without it, no methodology works. A company can weather turbulence only to the extent that its leaders can withstand their own uncertainty.

Conclusion

Leadership without stability is not chaos. It is a disciplined way of thinking, transparency in decision-making, and the systematic development of autonomy. Today’s strong leader is not someone who has all the answers, but someone who creates an environment where decisions are made quickly, reviewed without drama, and underpinned by trust. And this is not a one-time skill, but systematic work on oneself and the team. That is why developing managerial thinking is no longer an option, but a necessity for those who want to lead a company forward, even when the rules of the game change.