Global Outlook 2026: what will Ukraine’s new economy look like?
Ukraine’s new economy was the main theme of this year’s Global Outlook, the event that traditionally marks the start of the business season for the European Business Association.
Under enemy attacks, Ukraine’s economy is transforming and adapting. So what will it look like in one, three or five years? Where are companies investing? And, most importantly, how can Ukraine remain resilient and emerge from the war with stronger markets? We put these and other questions to the heads of some of Ukraine’s largest businesses.
Discussions about the future cannot overlook the current challenges, including intensified attacks on business assets. Ukrainian and foreign investors need capital guarantees to implement projects in Ukraine without waiting for the war to end. We discussed what the state can offer investors with Oleksandr Kravchenko, Minister of Economy and Environment of Ukraine.
According to Oleksandr Kravchenko, Ukraine’s reconstruction could become one of the largest investment projects. At the same time, preparations need to start now by opening markets for priority sectors, engaging international partners and preparing projects for investment.
“Meanwhile, we must remain aware of the realities: blocked exports, disrupted logistics chains and enemy attacks. Therefore, our main focus today is how to support business. The capacity of the state budget is limited, but we plan to provide businesses with additional resources through preferential lending and expanded compensation programmes. At the same time, we need a more comprehensive insurance instrument to give potential investors greater confidence. This, however, will require budgetary mechanisms to offset the costs,” the Minister noted.
Panel 1. Business and Capital
At the same time, businesses are already making investment decisions based on the realities of war. Tomas Fiala, CEO of Dragon Capital, noted that the company’s investment horizon extends to 12 years. Recently, Dragon Capital raised more than EUR 600 million for three new funds, of which EUR 90 million was contributed by Dragon Capital, with the remainder provided by international development organisations.
“We invest and build our financial models with the expectation of a prolonged war,” Tomas noted.
Among the areas that Dragon Capital currently considers promising for investment, he identified infrastructure — energy, transport and digital — as well as SMEs, including services, the financial sector, IT and manufacturing. According to him, war risk insurance is an important instrument for business, while the funding mechanism remains a matter of discussion.
Roman Yanovych, CEO of Nestlé in Ukraine and Moldova, also noted that the company’s baseline scenario assumes that the war will continue. At the same time, Nestlé continues to invest and develop in Ukraine: the company operates four factories and announced investment in a new production facility as early as 2022.
“We are not a company that is simply surviving — we are a company that is investing and developing,” Roman emphasised.
According to him, war risk insurance is a long-awaited instrument for business, while the idea of increasing VAT as a funding mechanism for the programme would have a negative impact on consumption.
He identified the shortage of labour as one of the key challenges. The company is addressing this through automation and the use of artificial intelligence. In particular, Nestlé is already using an AI agent in Ukraine to support merchandisers during field visits and provide real-time feedback.
Oleksandr Komarov, CEO of Kyivstar, also highlighted the role of infrastructure and the capital market. According to him, the resilience of Ukraine’s infrastructure will significantly determine how the country gets through the next winter. At the same time, major infrastructure changes take time — from several months to a year or more.
Kyivstar also supports the development of long-term investment instruments in Ukraine. It was recently announced that the company plans to list its shares on the Ukrainian market. According to Oleksandr, Ukraine needs to develop a more diversified capital market.
Speaking about war risk insurance, Oleksandr Komarov noted that current mechanisms are not effective enough, while insurance remains expensive and claims processes are complicated for businesses. He also noted that compliant businesses are facing losses due to the significant share of the shadow economy and regulatory pressure.
The need to adapt government policy to wartime conditions was raised by Oleksandr Farkosh, CEO of JTI Ukraine.
“Today, it is not enough for business simply to be listened to. It is important for us to be heard. In wartime, government policy needs to be flexible enough to respond promptly to new challenges and support the country’s economic resilience,” he noted.
The tobacco industry expects the implementation of an unprepared e-Excise system to be postponed and the use of paper excise stamps to remain possible. It also calls for the continued possibility of ordering imported excise stamps and for products destroyed as a result of the war to be replaced without having to pay the excise duty again.
“We are not asking for weaker controls. We are asking for solutions that will allow businesses to continue operating, preserve production, pay taxes and support Ukraine’s economy during the war,” he added.
During Global Outlook, the European Business Association also presented the findings of its Business Forecast survey. In 2027:
- 39% of companies forecast negative business development, while 34% expect no change and 27% anticipate positive dynamics;
- the average US dollar exchange rate factored into 2027 budgets is UAH 49;
- 3% of companies plan to implement new large-scale investment projects, while 48% intend to fund social initiatives.
According to Dragon Capital estimates, the blockade of Black Sea ports, which has continued since mid-July, will reduce real GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, with 0.6 percentage points attributable to the current year. Given the blockade and the rapid destruction of business assets and critical infrastructure by Russia in recent months, the economy is unlikely to grow this year or next, despite the rapid expansion of domestic defence production.
The port blockade and destruction of business assets are also expected to reduce export revenues by USD 5–6 billion this year, widening the foreign trade deficit to a record USD 63 billion, or 28% of GDP. However, Dragon Capital expects external stability to be maintained, as the National Bank of Ukraine has accumulated significant international reserves of around USD 50 billion. Provided international partners maintain their support, the risk of uncontrolled hryvnia depreciation remains low.
Panel 2. Future Industries and Technologies
The second panel focused on how artificial intelligence, robotics and automation will affect business in the coming years.
Speakers included: Ivan Pohrebniak, Chief Business Officer at Master of Code Global; Dmytro Lytvyniuk, Product Director at Deus Robotics; and Liudmyla Denesiuk, Supply Chain Management Director at Darnytsia.
Participants emphasised that AI should be viewed not merely as a tool for optimising individual tasks, but as a technology capable of changing the way a company operates. This involves identifying new sources of value creation and designing workflows around technological capabilities. At the same time, people remain a key element of this system — they determine how processes are structured, oversee decisions and remain responsible for their outcomes.
Particular attention was paid to robotics. Key factors determining whether its implementation is worthwhile include economic efficiency and return on investment, the flexibility of robotic solutions and their ability to integrate with a company’s existing systems.
The pharmaceutical sector provided an example of this approach. Due to the specifics of production and strict requirements for the quality and traceability of medicines, companies work with large volumes of data that need to be analysed quickly for forecasting and decision-making. Automation and AI are already being used for these tasks, while certain warehouse processes can operate with minimal human involvement. At the same time, experience with implementing such technologies shows the importance of involving employees at the process design stage, helping teams adapt more quickly to new approaches.
Panel 3. Infrastructure and Essential Services
Participants in the third panel discussed autonomous transport, the automation of healthcare processes and, most importantly, the need to create the conditions for the safe implementation of such solutions.
Speakers included: Serhii Hryshkov, CEO of Uklon; Maryna Ihnatenko, CFO of Scania Ukraine; Yevhen Donets, CEO of Helsi; and Serhii Hontar, General Manager of Philips Ukraine.
Autonomous driving is one example of technology that has already passed the testing stage. Companies are working on solutions that allow a driver to control a vehicle remotely. Experts noted that the technology needed for scaling already exists, but the full use of driverless technology on public roads requires an appropriate regulatory framework.
Autonomous technologies can also be used in freight transport. Such solutions are already operating at mining sites in Australia. In addition to improving efficiency, this technology can generate economic benefits, including through lower fuel consumption. Panel participants also highlighted Ukraine’s potential to turn the challenges of wartime into a foundation for long-term technological development, with autonomous transport potentially becoming one element of a more resilient logistics system in Ukraine.
Another part of the discussion focused on the digitalisation of healthcare. Participants agreed that technology and AI are not intended to replace doctors; rather, their role is to reduce the workload of healthcare professionals. Working with large volumes of medical data can also help doctors access the information they need more quickly, conduct more comprehensive analyses and make better-informed decisions.
At the same time, the digital transformation of essential services is impossible without proper data protection. Alongside technological development, experts therefore highlighted the need for an appropriate regulatory environment that enables innovation while ensuring adequate security standards.
The Association thanks all speakers and participants for joining the event. Special thanks go to the event’s main partners: Kyivstar, OTP Bank, Nestlé and JTI Ukraine, as well as social partner BlagoMay Charitable Foundation.
