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Business сalls for a balanced electricity transmission tariff for 2026

04/ 12/ 2025
  The European Business Association has appealed to the National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission (NEURC) and the Government of Ukraine, urging them to approve a balanced and economically justified electricity transmission tariff for Ukrenergo for 2026. NEURC plays a crucial role as an independent regulator whose decisions directly influence market predictability, the investment climate, and the resilience of the country’s energy system. Amid ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure and increased risks for businesses, setting an appropriate electricity transmission tariff is critical for maintaining Ukraine’s energy security. At the same time, Ukrenergo is the central element of the energy system. The stability of its operations determines the restoration and protection of grids, the integration of new generation capacities, the fulfilment of Public Service Obligations (PSO), and the overall investment attractiveness of the sector. Experts of the Energy Committee of the European Business Association note that several provisions of the current tariff draft for 2026 require clarification, including: 1. Use of accurate macroeconomic assumptions and realistic market forecasts The draft tariff applies an EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.08, whereas market forecasts from leading international financial institutions indicate a potential strengthening of the euro to around 1.22. Underestimating the currency component may lead to understated operator costs and a hidden deficit. The accuracy of currency assumptions is not only a matter of financial precision but also a key factor in maintaining investor confidence in the tariff model. 2. Accuracy of projected transmission volumes Underestimating projected transmission volumes reduces the operator’s potential revenues and limits its capacity to perform PSO, cover operational expenses, and maintain system stability. In wartime, even minor forecasting errors may have significant consequences. 3. Realistic forecast price of electricity sold by the Guaranteed Buyer In previous years, the gap between forecast and actual prices reached 10–30%. An overestimated forecast price artificially lowers the PSO expenditure assumed in the tariff and leads to underfunding. 4. Coverage of obligations from previous years The PSO-related debt accumulated over several years remains outstanding. The current tariff draft provides for an adjustment of previous periods’ revenues by less than UAH 2 billion, while the real need is substantially higher. Insufficient funding will preserve the debt burden and increase the operator’s liquidity risks. Representatives of the EBA stress that an artificially low tariff creates a long-term chain of risks—from underfunding to rising debt burdens and a deterioration of the investment climate. The European Business Association has already sent a formal letter to Yurii Vlasenko, Chair of NEURC; Yulia Svyrydenko, Prime Minister of Ukraine; Andrii Herus, Chair of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Energy and Housing and Communal Services; and Artem Nekrasov, Acting Minister of Energy of Ukraine. The EBA will continue to promote open dialogue with the regulator and the authorities to support the sustainable development of Ukraine’s energy sector.

The European Business Association has appealed to the National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission (NEURC) and the Government of Ukraine, urging them to approve a balanced and economically justified electricity transmission tariff for Ukrenergo for 2026.

NEURC plays a crucial role as an independent regulator whose decisions directly influence market predictability, the investment climate, and the resilience of the country’s energy system. Amid ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure and increased risks for businesses, setting an appropriate electricity transmission tariff is critical for maintaining Ukraine’s energy security.

At the same time, Ukrenergo is the central element of the energy system. The stability of its operations determines the restoration and protection of grids, the integration of new generation capacities, the fulfilment of Public Service Obligations (PSO), and the overall investment attractiveness of the sector.

Experts of the Energy Committee of the European Business Association note that several provisions of the current tariff draft for 2026 require clarification, including:

1. Use of accurate macroeconomic assumptions and realistic market forecasts

The draft tariff applies an EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.08, whereas market forecasts from leading international financial institutions indicate a potential strengthening of the euro to around 1.22. Underestimating the currency component may lead to understated operator costs and a hidden deficit. The accuracy of currency assumptions is not only a matter of financial precision but also a key factor in maintaining investor confidence in the tariff model.

2. Accuracy of projected transmission volumes

Underestimating projected transmission volumes reduces the operator’s potential revenues and limits its capacity to perform PSO, cover operational expenses, and maintain system stability. In wartime, even minor forecasting errors may have significant consequences.

3. Realistic forecast price of electricity sold by the Guaranteed Buyer

In previous years, the gap between forecast and actual prices reached 10–30%. An overestimated forecast price artificially lowers the PSO expenditure assumed in the tariff and leads to underfunding.

4. Coverage of obligations from previous years

The PSO-related debt accumulated over several years remains outstanding. The current tariff draft provides for an adjustment of previous periods’ revenues by less than UAH 2 billion, while the real need is substantially higher. Insufficient funding will preserve the debt burden and increase the operator’s liquidity risks.

Representatives of the EBA stress that an artificially low tariff creates a long-term chain of risks—from underfunding to rising debt burdens and a deterioration of the investment climate.

The European Business Association has already sent a formal letter to Yurii Vlasenko, Chair of NEURC; Yulia Svyrydenko, Prime Minister of Ukraine; Andrii Herus, Chair of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Energy and Housing and Communal Services; and Artem Nekrasov, Acting Minister of Energy of Ukraine.

The EBA will continue to promote open dialogue with the regulator and the authorities to support the sustainable development of Ukraine’s energy sector.

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