EBA met with Oleksii Arestovych, Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine

27/ 04/ 2022

Today, the European Business Association met with Oleksiy Arestovych, Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine. According to preliminary forecasts, July and August may be months of the active phase of offensive fighting as Ukraine will soon receive weapons. However, the forecasts are favorable for Ukraine. There is still a risk of the use of tactical nuclear/ chemical weapons by russia, especially if Ukraine succeeds at the front. But russia is unlikely to go for it as it knows what reaction from the world will follow, so most likely these weapons are just for scaring. Meanwhile, it can be stated that Ukraine has won the information war according to the worlds best experts. We also talked about areas of ongoing confrontations. According to Arestovych, russians will not be able to take Kharkiv, Odesa but they may be shelled. Zaporizhia, Transnistria may be another unsuccessful attempt of russians to suicide. Ukraine has a chance to win back Donetsk and Luhansk regions by military means, while the Kherson Peoples Republic may be created in the Kherson region (so now the authorities prepare a memo on how businesses have to behave there so not to be considered as collaborationists, etc.). There was a discussion of economic issues. Thus, this year the economy will fall by 45% so it needs to be restructured and reconstructed in the future. And yet there should be maximum deregulation and simplification of doing business, rather than cornering and increasing taxes. In particular, among the proposals are the unblocking of VAT refunds to importers and exporters, the abolition of state regulation of prices, for example, for fuel, etc. Surely, there is a lot of work ahead: restoration of infrastructure, logistics, etc. At the same time, the issue of the blocked ports is currently being raised at the highest level, but, unfortunately, they are unlikely to be quickly unblocked for the export of products, so other, alternative logistics routes are being considered. The issue of the short-term departure of men for business purposes has already been raised, there is a list and it will gradually expand. However, it was agreed that the EBA, for its part, will submit appropriate proposals. After all, there is information that the military enlistment offices are not always in a hurry to act accordingly. At the same time, in the context of mobilization, there is currently no need for a third wave. However, in general, the country will continue to pursue a course of militarization, because it will hardly be possible to live peacefully with such a neighbor. We truly thank Oleksiy Arestovych for a sincere and open discussion! In the near future, we will share comments and suggestions on the issues from business as discussed.

Today, the European Business Association met with Oleksiy Arestovych, Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine.

According to preliminary forecasts, July and August may be months of the active phase of offensive fighting as Ukraine will soon receive weapons. However, the forecasts are favorable for Ukraine. There is still a risk of the use of tactical nuclear/ chemical weapons by russia, especially if Ukraine succeeds at the front. But russia is unlikely to go for it as it knows what reaction from the world will follow, so most likely these weapons are just for scaring.

Meanwhile, it can be stated that Ukraine has won the information war according to the world’s best experts.

We also talked about areas of ongoing confrontations. According to Arestovych, russians will not be able to take Kharkiv, Odesa but they may be shelled. Zaporizhia, Transnistria may be another unsuccessful attempt of russians to “suicide”. Ukraine has a chance to win back Donetsk and Luhansk regions by military means, while the Kherson People’s Republic may be created in the Kherson region (so now the authorities prepare a memo on how businesses have to behave there so not to be considered as collaborationists, etc.).

There was a discussion of economic issues. Thus, this year the economy will fall by 45% so it needs to be restructured and reconstructed in the future. And yet there should be maximum deregulation and simplification of doing business, rather than cornering and increasing taxes. In particular, among the proposals are the unblocking of VAT refunds to importers and exporters, the abolition of state regulation of prices, for example, for fuel, etc.

Surely, there is a lot of work ahead: restoration of infrastructure, logistics, etc. At the same time, the issue of the blocked ports is currently being raised at the highest level, but, unfortunately, they are unlikely to be quickly unblocked for the export of products, so other, alternative logistics routes are being considered. The issue of the short-term departure of men for business purposes has already been raised, there is a list and it will gradually expand. However, it was agreed that the EBA, for its part, will submit appropriate proposals. After all, there is information that the military enlistment offices are not always in a hurry to act accordingly. At the same time, in the context of mobilization, there is currently no need for a third wave. However, in general, the country will continue to pursue a course of militarization, because it will hardly be possible to live peacefully with such a neighbor.

We truly thank Oleksiy Arestovych for a sincere and open discussion! In the near future, we will share comments and suggestions on the issues from business as discussed.