Two out of three SMEs plan to expand their business in 2025

26/ 02/ 2025

The European Business Association, as part of the Unlimit Ukraine project, together with OLX Ukraine and Raiffeisen Bank, has presented the results of the 2024 Small Business Sentiment Index survey. The overall index score has declined to 2.3 out of 5 (compared to 2.5 in 2023), indicating a negative trend in entrepreneurs’ sentiment. At the same time, small businesses assess the current situation slightly better than during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, when the index reached a historic low of 2.2 in 2020. View the presentation In 2024, all components of the index showed a decline, including the assessment of SMEs’ current status, changes over the past six months, expectations for the next six months, and the evaluation of the economic situation. The lowest indicator was the assessment of the economic situation (1.9), while the highest was the forecast for the next six months (2.6). Currently, 21% of entrepreneurs believe their business is doing well (compared to 19% in 2023), while 27.5% assess their situation as neutral. However, the share of those who consider their business condition poor has increased from 39% last year to 51.5%. Over the past six months, business sentiment has followed a negative trend: 62% of entrepreneurs reported worsening conditions, 26% saw no changes, and only 12% noted improvements. Expectations for the next six months have also become more cautious. Only 22% of entrepreneurs anticipate improvements (down from 37%), while 47% believe the situation will deteriorate (up from 35%). The proportion of those expecting no changes has risen to 31%. Moreover, entrepreneurs mostly have a negative outlook on Ukraine’s economic situation: 54% consider it unfavourable, 41% see it as catastrophic, and only 5% view it as favourable. SMEs expansion plans have somewhat slowed down. The share of entrepreneurs planning to expand has dropped from 79% to 67%. However, growth ambitions remain: 25% plan to launch new production lines, 13% aim to expand their geographic reach, and 14% intend to enter foreign markets. Additionally, 17% of businesses already export goods or services abroad, up from 14% in 2023. Of course, the war has significantly impacted business plans. There has also been a sharp decline in the number of entrepreneurs planning to attract funding – from 80% to 62%. The main sources of financing are: Own funds – 47% Grant programmes – 21% Loans – 16% Investments – 10% At the same time, among those seeking funding, the number of entrepreneurs relying on their own funds and loans has increased. As a result, the share of those who consider bank loans inaccessible has slightly decreased from 42% last year to 34%. Meanwhile, 22% of entrepreneurs noted an increase in lending opportunities (compared to 19%). Businesses are actively using digital channels for sales, with 67% of surveyed entrepreneurs confirming this. These include social media and company websites. The share of those operating exclusively online has risen from 15% to 24%. The main challenges for small businesses remain the war, low consumer purchasing power, rising prices, economic instability, attacks on the energy system, and fiscal pressure. Anna Derevyanko. Executive Director of the European Business Association. Despite extremely difficult conditions, small businesses are seeking opportunities and resources to keep operating. Although overall business sentiment has worsened, the majority still plan to expand and invest. However, economic and security challenges remain significant, and the future development of SMEs will depend on the overall situation in the country. Alyona Horkovenko. Мarketing Team Manager at OLX Ukraine and Central Asia. The business environment plays a key role in fostering e-commerce, creating an ecosystem of mutual support and growth. While the overall digital adoption rate has remained stable, the share of entrepreneurs relying exclusively on online channels has nearly doubled. In the context of global digitalisation and Ukraine’s post-war recovery, e-commerce must become a priority for economic development. It will not only drive business growth but also create new entrepreneurial opportunities, ultimately contributing to economic recovery and prosperity. At OLX, we will continue to support the development of e-commerce in Ukraine by creating additional opportunities. Olena Shpyrka. Head of Business Banking Client Segment Development at Raiffeisen Bank. Raiffeisen Bank′s mission goes beyond traditional banking – we are building a strong financial foundation for Ukraine′s recovery, business support, and growth, even in challenging times. Our clients can apply for loans online via Raiffeisen Business Online, use remote loan issuance processes, and benefit from faster loan approvals. Additionally, we offer a wide range of partnership loan programmes that help businesses save costs and mitigate risks. We provide an individual approach tailored to each client′s needs. Raiffeisen Bank continues to support agribusiness, which is vital for economic development and food security. Today, Raiffeisen remains one of the leaders in financing Ukraine′s agricultural sector. We also contribute to Ukraine′s energy independence by financing solar power plant construction, solar panel production, biogas and biomethane plants, biomass boiler stations, generator purchases, and energy-efficient projects. Furthermore, the bank actively invests in projects with a social component, supporting SMEs, women′s entrepreneurship, access to education, and healthcare. SMALL BUSINESS SENTIMENT INDEX has been conducted by the European Business Association since 2017 as part of the Unlimit Ukraine project. The survey monitors small business assessments and sentiment, identifying growth drivers that will stimulate development. The project partners in 2024 are OLX Ukraine and Raiffeisen Bank. The study was conducted from 1 to 31 December 2024, with 1,716 sole proprietors participating. Unlimit Ukraine is a platform for the development of small and micro-businesses, created by the European Business Association. The project provides comprehensive support through educational events, consultations, participation in international cooperation programmes, business diagnostics, and discussions on relevant business issues. Small and micro-businesses with sole proprietorship status can join the project regardless of their field of activity. Currently, Unlimit Ukraine includes 9,000 SME representatives.

At the same time, small businesses assess the current situation slightly better than during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, when the index reached a historic low of 2.2 in 2020.

View the presentation

In 2024, all components of the index showed a decline, including the assessment of SMEs’ current status, changes over the past six months, expectations for the next six months, and the evaluation of the economic situation. The lowest indicator was the assessment of the economic situation (1.9), while the highest was the forecast for the next six months (2.6).

Currently, 21% of entrepreneurs believe their business is doing well (compared to 19% in 2023), while 27.5% assess their situation as neutral. However, the share of those who consider their business condition poor has increased from 39% last year to 51.5%.

Over the past six months, business sentiment has followed a negative trend: 62% of entrepreneurs reported worsening conditions, 26% saw no changes, and only 12% noted improvements.

Expectations for the next six months have also become more cautious. Only 22% of entrepreneurs anticipate improvements (down from 37%), while 47% believe the situation will deteriorate (up from 35%). The proportion of those expecting no changes has risen to 31%.

Moreover, entrepreneurs mostly have a negative outlook on Ukraine’s economic situation: 54% consider it unfavourable, 41% see it as catastrophic, and only 5% view it as favourable.

SMEs’ expansion plans have somewhat slowed down. The share of entrepreneurs planning to expand has dropped from 79% to 67%. However, growth ambitions remain: 25% plan to launch new production lines, 13% aim to expand their geographic reach, and 14% intend to enter foreign markets. Additionally, 17% of businesses already export goods or services abroad, up from 14% in 2023.

Of course, the war has significantly impacted business plans. There has also been a sharp decline in the number of entrepreneurs planning to attract funding – from 80% to 62%. The main sources of financing are:

Own funds – 47%
Grant programmes – 21%
Loans – 16%
Investments – 10%

At the same time, among those seeking funding, the number of entrepreneurs relying on their own funds and loans has increased. As a result, the share of those who consider bank loans inaccessible has slightly decreased from 42% last year to 34%. Meanwhile, 22% of entrepreneurs noted an increase in lending opportunities (compared to 19%).

Businesses are actively using digital channels for sales, with 67% of surveyed entrepreneurs confirming this. These include social media and company websites. The share of those operating exclusively online has risen from 15% to 24%.

The main challenges for small businesses remain the war, low consumer purchasing power, rising prices, economic instability, attacks on the energy system, and fiscal pressure.

Anna Derevyanko Executive Director of the European Business Association

Despite extremely difficult conditions, small businesses are seeking opportunities and resources to keep operating. Although overall business sentiment has worsened, the majority still plan to expand and invest. However, economic and security challenges remain significant, and the future development of SMEs will depend on the overall situation in the country.

Alyona Horkovenko Мarketing Team Manager at OLX Ukraine and Central Asia

The business environment plays a key role in fostering e-commerce, creating an ecosystem of mutual support and growth. While the overall digital adoption rate has remained stable, the share of entrepreneurs relying exclusively on online channels has nearly doubled. In the context of global digitalisation and Ukraine’s post-war recovery, e-commerce must become a priority for economic development. It will not only drive business growth but also create new entrepreneurial opportunities, ultimately contributing to economic recovery and prosperity. At OLX, we will continue to support the development of e-commerce in Ukraine by creating additional opportunities.

Olena Shpyrka Head of Business Banking Client Segment Development at Raiffeisen Bank

Raiffeisen Bank′s mission goes beyond traditional banking – we are building a strong financial foundation for Ukraine′s recovery, business support, and growth, even in challenging times. Our clients can apply for loans online via Raiffeisen Business Online, use remote loan issuance processes, and benefit from faster loan approvals. Additionally, we offer a wide range of partnership loan programmes that help businesses save costs and mitigate risks. We provide an individual approach tailored to each client′s needs. Raiffeisen Bank continues to support agribusiness, which is vital for economic development and food security. Today, Raiffeisen remains one of the leaders in financing Ukraine′s agricultural sector. We also contribute to Ukraine′s energy independence by financing solar power plant construction, solar panel production, biogas and biomethane plants, biomass boiler stations, generator purchases, and energy-efficient projects. Furthermore, the bank actively invests in projects with a social component, supporting SMEs, women′s entrepreneurship, access to education, and healthcare.

SMALL BUSINESS SENTIMENT INDEX has been conducted by the European Business Association since 2017 as part of the Unlimit Ukraine project. The survey monitors small business assessments and sentiment, identifying growth drivers that will stimulate development. The project partners in 2024 are OLX Ukraine and Raiffeisen Bank. The study was conducted from 1 to 31 December 2024, with 1,716 sole proprietors participating.

Unlimit Ukraine is a platform for the development of small and micro-businesses, created by the European Business Association. The project provides comprehensive support through educational events, consultations, participation in international cooperation programmes, business diagnostics, and discussions on relevant business issues. Small and micro-businesses with sole proprietorship status can join the project regardless of their field of activity. Currently, Unlimit Ukraine includes 9,000 SME representatives.