{"id":772799,"date":"2026-09-18T12:26:31","date_gmt":"2026-09-18T09:26:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/eba.com.ua\/?p=772799"},"modified":"2026-09-18T12:28:19","modified_gmt":"2026-09-18T09:28:19","slug":"global-outlook-2026-yakoyu-bude-nova-ekonomika-ukrayiny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/eba.com.ua\/en\/global-outlook-2026-yakoyu-bude-nova-ekonomika-ukrayiny\/","title":{"rendered":"[:ua]Global Outlook 2026: \u044f\u043a\u043e\u044e \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0435 \u043d\u043e\u0432\u0430 \u0435\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0456\u043a\u0430 \u0423\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0457\u043d\u0438[:en]Global Outlook 2026: what will Ukraine\u2019s new economy look like?[:]"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Ukraine\u2019s new economy was the main theme of this year\u2019s Global Outlook, the event that traditionally marks the start of the business season for the European Business Association.<\/em><\/p>\n

Under enemy attacks, Ukraine\u2019s economy is transforming and adapting. So what will it look like in one, three or five years? Where are companies investing? And, most importantly, how can Ukraine remain resilient and emerge from the war with stronger markets? We put these and other questions to the heads of some of Ukraine\u2019s largest businesses.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"Discussions about the future cannot overlook the current challenges, including intensified attacks on business assets. Ukrainian and foreign investors need capital guarantees to implement projects in Ukraine without waiting for the war to end. We discussed what the state can offer investors with Oleksandr Kravchenko, Minister of Economy and Environment of Ukraine.<\/strong><\/p>\n

According to Oleksandr Kravchenko, Ukraine\u2019s reconstruction could become one of the largest investment projects. At the same time, preparations need to start now by opening markets for priority sectors, engaging international partners and preparing projects for investment.<\/p>\n

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\u201cMeanwhile, we must remain aware of the realities: blocked exports, disrupted logistics chains and enemy attacks. Therefore, our main focus today is how to support business. The capacity of the state budget is limited, but we plan to provide businesses with additional resources through preferential lending and expanded compensation programmes. At the same time, we need a more comprehensive insurance instrument to give potential investors greater confidence. This, however, will require budgetary mechanisms to offset the costs,\u201d the Minister noted.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Panel 1. Business and Capital<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"At the same time, businesses are already making investment decisions based on the realities of war. Tomas Fiala, CEO of Dragon Capital,<\/strong> noted that the company\u2019s investment horizon extends to 12 years. Recently, Dragon Capital raised more than EUR 600 million for three new funds, of which EUR 90 million was contributed by Dragon Capital, with the remainder provided by international development organisations.<\/p>\n

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\u201cWe invest and build our financial models with the expectation of a prolonged war,\u201d Tomas noted. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Among the areas that Dragon Capital currently considers promising for investment, he identified infrastructure \u2014 energy, transport and digital \u2014 as well as SMEs, including services, the financial sector, IT and manufacturing. According to him, war risk insurance is an important instrument for business, while the funding mechanism remains a matter of discussion.<\/p>\n

Roman Yanovych, CEO of Nestl\u00e9 in Ukraine and Moldova,<\/strong> also noted that the company\u2019s baseline scenario assumes that the war will continue. At the same time, Nestl\u00e9 continues to invest and develop in Ukraine: the company operates four factories and announced investment in a new production facility as early as 2022.<\/p>\n

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\u201cWe are not a company that is simply surviving \u2014 we are a company that is investing and developing,\u201d Roman emphasised. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

According to him, war risk insurance is a long-awaited instrument for business, while the idea of increasing VAT as a funding mechanism for the programme would have a negative impact on consumption.<\/p>\n

He identified the shortage of labour as one of the key challenges. The company is addressing this through automation and the use of artificial intelligence. In particular, Nestl\u00e9 is already using an AI agent in Ukraine to support merchandisers during field visits and provide real-time feedback.<\/p>\n

Oleksandr Komarov, CEO of Kyivstar,<\/strong> also highlighted the role of infrastructure and the capital market. According to him, the resilience of Ukraine\u2019s infrastructure will significantly determine how the country gets through the next winter. At the same time, major infrastructure changes take time \u2014 from several months to a year or more.<\/p>\n

Kyivstar also supports the development of long-term investment instruments in Ukraine. It was recently announced that the company plans to list its shares on the Ukrainian market. According to Oleksandr, Ukraine needs to develop a more diversified capital market.<\/p>\n

Speaking about war risk insurance, Oleksandr Komarov noted that current mechanisms are not effective enough, while insurance remains expensive and claims processes are complicated for businesses. He also noted that compliant businesses are facing losses due to the significant share of the shadow economy and regulatory pressure.<\/p>\n

The need to adapt government policy to wartime conditions was raised by Oleksandr Farkosh, CEO of JTI Ukraine.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u201cToday, it is not enough for business simply to be listened to. It is important for us to be heard. In wartime, government policy needs to be flexible enough to respond promptly to new challenges and support the country\u2019s economic resilience,\u201d he noted.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The tobacco industry expects the implementation of an unprepared e-Excise system to be postponed and the use of paper excise stamps to remain possible. It also calls for the continued possibility of ordering imported excise stamps and for products destroyed as a result of the war to be replaced without having to pay the excise duty again.<\/p>\n

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\u201cWe are not asking for weaker controls. We are asking for solutions that will allow businesses to continue operating, preserve production, pay taxes and support Ukraine\u2019s economy during the war,\u201d he added.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

During Global Outlook, the European Business Association also presented the findings of its Business Forecast<\/strong> survey<\/a>. In 2027:<\/strong><\/p>\n