{"id":732406,"date":"2026-04-02T11:40:43","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T08:40:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/eba.com.ua\/?p=732406"},"modified":"2026-04-09T11:47:57","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T08:47:57","slug":"chomu-ukrayini-potribne-vidterminuvannya-cbam-i-chomu-yes-pomylyvsya","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/eba.com.ua\/en\/chomu-ukrayini-potribne-vidterminuvannya-cbam-i-chomu-yes-pomylyvsya\/","title":{"rendered":"[:ua]\u0427\u043e\u043c\u0443 \u0423\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0457\u043d\u0456 \u043f\u043e\u0442\u0440\u0456\u0431\u043d\u0435 \u0432\u0456\u0434\u0442\u0435\u0440\u043c\u0456\u043d\u0443\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044f CBAM \u2013 \u0456 \u0447\u043e\u043c\u0443 \u0404\u0421 \u043f\u043e\u043c\u0438\u043b\u0438\u0432\u0441\u044f[:en]Why Ukraine needs a CBAM delay \u2013 and why the EU got it wrong[:]"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n\t

\n\n\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tStanislav Zinchenko<\/span>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tGMK Center CEO<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\n\t<\/div>\n\n

Of course, a deferral of a few years won\u2019t fix everything<\/strong><\/p>\n

GMK Center has been tracking the CBAM file since 2020, when the mechanism was still just a proposal. Today it\u2019s law. And our early read on it has held up: CBAM is a hard trade barrier. For Ukrainian producers of long steel and semi\u2011finished products, competitiveness in the EU market has already taken a visible hit. This isn\u2019t just a sectoral issue \u2013 steel accounts for 7.2% of Ukraine\u2019s GDP.<\/p>\n

The comprehensive study by GMK Center can be downloaded via the link.<\/a><\/p>\n

But to understand the full impact, you have to zoom out. CBAM isn\u2019t just about trade today. It\u2019s about Ukraine\u2019s post\u2011war recovery, the future of its industrial base, and its integration into EU supply chains.<\/p>\n

Yes, CBAM is part of EU climate policy. If Ukraine is serious about EU accession, its industry would have faced decarbonization pressure anyway. But the\u00a0how\u00a0matters. Other Eastern European countries, like Poland, being the obvious example, \u2013 received massive investment inflows during their integration. Ukraine is being handed the same regulatory demands, but without the financial tailwind.<\/p>\n

That tailwind never came. Russian aggression wiped out the window for investment. Before the war, every major Ukrainian steelmaker had a decarbonization roadmap. Those projects are now frozen \u2013 not just because of the war, but because rising energy costs have made them financially unviable.<\/p>\n

Catching up will be brutally hard. A CBAM postponement isn\u2019t a cure, but it would buy time.<\/p>\n

The EU had the legal option to grant one. But it said no.<\/p>\n

GMK Center ran the numbers on what that decision actually means. Our conclusion: Ukraine could lose 2.1% of its GDP by 2030 from CBAM\u2019s effect on steel alone. That is two orders of magnitude higher than the European Commission\u2019s estimate of -0.01% \u2013 the very figure used to justify rejecting Ukraine\u2019s request.<\/p>\n

A decision based on numbers that far off the mark isn\u2019t just questionable. It\u2019s unsound. The Commission\u2019s impact assessment needs a second look. The stakes are too high to rely on faulty arithmetic.<\/p>\n

Of course, a deferral of a few years won\u2019t fix everything. Between 2026 and 2028, the effects of CBAM will be painful but survivable. By 2029\u20132030, we risk losing half of Ukraine\u2019s five remaining steel plants.<\/p>\n

At its core, this is an investment deficit problem. CBAM magnifies it and accelerates the damage. The EU has enjoyed near\u2011zero cost of capital for 15 years. Ukraine hasn\u2019t. Asking both to decarbonize at the same pace, with the same rules, ignores that asymmetry.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why CBAM and decarbonization financing must be addressed together.<\/p>\n

The Ukraine Investment Framework, part of the Ukraine Facility, allocates just \u20ac9.3 billion in direct grants and \u20ac7.8 billion in loan guarantees. That covers\u00a0all\u00a0industry and energy. It\u2019s nowhere near enough. Energy sector recovery alone requires around \u20ac70 billion. Without affordable low\u2011carbon power, green steel is a non\u2011starter. And our estimates show that decarbonizing existing iron and steel capacity would take an additional \u20ac12 billion.<\/p>\n

So the question is simple: where is that money supposed to come from?<\/p>\n

Until there\u2019s an answer, Ukraine needs a CBAM postponement. The legal basis exists. The data supports it. What\u2019s missing is the political will to admit the first assessment was wrong.<\/p>\n

Source: GMK Center<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Of course, a deferral of a few years won\u2019t fix everything GMK Center has been tracking the CBAM file since 2020, when the mechanism was still just a proposal. Today it\u2019s law. And our early read on it has held up: CBAM is a hard trade barrier. For Ukrainian producers of long steel and semi\u2011finished […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4489,"featured_media":732416,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhy Ukraine needs a CBAM delay \u2013 and why the EU got it wrong - European Business Association<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/eba.com.ua\/chomu-ukrayini-potribne-vidterminuvannya-cbam-i-chomu-yes-pomylyvsya\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why Ukraine needs a CBAM delay \u2013 and why the EU got it wrong - European Business Association\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Of course, a deferral of a few years won\u2019t fix everything GMK Center has been tracking the CBAM file since 2020, when the mechanism was still just a proposal. 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